Investment approach

Process before prediction.

A framework for asking better questions about businesses, value and risk—without pretending that uncertainty can be eliminated.

Identify how the company creates value, earns revenue, serves customers and differentiates itself from competitors.

Study revenue quality, profitability, cash flow, leverage, working capital and consistency of reported performance.

Consider governance, transparency, incentives and the record of capital allocation.

Compare price with reasonable estimates of business value, recognising that assumptions can be wrong.

Examine industry structure, competitive forces, regulation, technology and relevant macroeconomic conditions.

Consider downside scenarios, concentration, liquidity, uncertainty and the possibility of permanent capital loss.

Decision principles

Questions matter more than confident forecasts.

A disciplined process can improve the quality of decisions, but it cannot guarantee a particular result.